Evaluation of investment projects using traditional and fuzzy methods of analysis

Abstract

Financial analysis is one of the main tools and methods of modern investment design, where the projects are alternative or mutually exclusive, that is, the implementation of one of them makes it impossible or unreasonable to implement the others. It is understood that alternative investment projects have the same target orientation, that is, in the process of financial analysis, each of the alternative projects is considered independently, and the possible effect of its implementation is determined without communication with other investment projects. In this regard, the paper considers approaches to solving the problem of multi-criteria assessment of investment project portfolio having an information on financial indicators of projects from reliable sources. Within the framework of the proposed approaches and the formed set of financial indicators, a comprehensive methodology for comparative analysis and selection of investment decisions is proposed, which is based on the application in a certain order and using the capabilities of the methods of comparative analysis of Paret and Bord, as well as fuzzy maximin convolution methods and fuzzy inference, provided that the evaluation criteria are equally important. When using fuzzy methods of analysis, each of the financial indicators is considered as a qualitative criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of an investment project, which is interpreted by suitable fuzzy sets. Based on the results of the calculations, the ranking of hypothetical alternative investment projects was carried out using the considered multi-criteria evaluation methods and their comparative analysis was carried out, which ultimately allows financing the most effective projects.