Assessment of the excess mortality in Ukraine caused by COVID-19.

Abstract

Demographic statistics of Ukraine and other countries of the world indicate that the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on mortality is not limited only to COVID-19 fatalities. Analysis of all-cause mortality statistics allows for examining the consequences of the pandemic regardless of the problem of determining the cause of death, which is especially relevant in the case of poor COVID-19 testing. The basic approach of such analysis includes comparing the number of deaths from all causes during the pandemic period with a forecast based on the tendencies of previous years. For the period from March 2020 to January 2022, there are considered three methods, the biggest difference between which is the interpretation of data for months when all-cause mortality is lower than expected. Other methodological issues arose while estimating the phenomenon of excess mortality in September-December 2020, whose ratio to the confirmed COVID-19 deaths was higher than on the average in 2021. It can be partially explained by the low volumes of tests in the fourth quarter of 2020. The reality of the increased excess mortality in September-December 2020 is evidenced by the fact that a similar phenomenon was observed in many neighboring countries. The conducted study shows that the excess mortality associated with the pandemic is at least 1.8–2.1 times higher than the confirmed COVID-19 deaths according to the Ministry of Health, and at least 1.6–1.9 times exceeds the similar indicator according to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The obtained estimates are consistent with similar estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, USA, Washington state) and the World Health Organization (WHO). The found estimates should be considered as lower given that the expected mortality from all causes for 2020–2022 was not adjusted for the phenomenon of mortality reduction observed in the first half of 2020.