On the issue of forecasting the residual life of electronic products

Abstract

The work is devoted to solving the important problem of extending the period of operation of obsolete equipment for critical systems, planned measures to replace which are not economically feasible at this time. At the same time, a necessary condition for extending the period of operation is to maintain the established risks of critical situations that could cause accidents. For non-renewable products, a residual life is predicted, and for renewable products, a residual life is predicted. If many issues have been resolved in questions of forecasting the state of mechanical products, today, in the direction of electronic and electrical products, solving this problem requires further researches. Insurmountable difficulties are connected with using, as a theoretical model, the reliability of the exponential distribution, which does not imply the occurrence of degradation and aging processes in products, depending on the service life. As an alternative to forecasting the residual life of electronic products, a probabilistic-physical reliability model is proposed – a DN-distribution obtained specifically for solving reliability problems for a given class of products. The DN-distribution is a flexible two-parameter function that most accurately describes any statistics of failures with different coefficients of variation of the mean time between failures. In addition, this distribution has a function of failure rate, which varies over time that corresponds to most real objects sensitive to degradation of parameters and aging. Drawing on the example of semiconductor transistors, methods of forecasting the residual life of products after long-term storage without electrical load and according to the results of forced tests with increased load are proposed.